热博体育

Agriculture in Brazil changed substantially in the 1960s, as the country became more industrialized and agriculture was modernized. That transition was largely funded from public resources, through low-interest agricultural loans aimed at supporting farmers. The agricultural activity guarantee fund (PROAGRO) set up by the Central Bank of Brazil in 1973, granted farmers the right to be exempted from their financial obligations related to loan operations in the event of crop loss. However, in 1993, declared rates of agricultural losses were found to be very high, thus resulting in substantial loan repayment requests, causing PROAGRO to face an important financial shortfall (estimated at 255 million euros). This pointed to the need for a regional tool to define high–risk geographical areas and appropriate agricultural practices (along with varieties used and sowing windows). The SARRA water balance model was developed by 热博体育 to simulate the daily water balance of a crop based on soil, crop and climate parameters. It was integrated into the Brazilian agricultural policy instrument “agricultural climate risk zoning” (ZARC).

Implementation and scope of the case study

The assessment was led by the TETIS joint research unit - working on spatial information to understand the complexities of territories and agro-ecosystems - with the support of the ImpresS team. The study combined semi-directive individual interviews (done remotely, around 30 people), two multi-stakeholder participatory workshops (done remotely, 19 people), and online surveys (17 replies), and used the ImpresS ex post method to trace the innovation process of water balance models begun 40 years ago and their appropriation by Brazilian players, and analyse the contribution the process has made to socioeconomic change and impact, notably through their integration into the ZARC climate service. The study generated several outputs, including an innovation story, a map of players and an impact pathway. The study period ran from 1970 (date when this family of models was developed) to 2021.

The model and its appropriation by Brazilian stakeholders

The study distinguished between three stages of the innovation process:

• 1970-1987: The foundations of the innovation  

The severe drought in the Sahel in the 1970s prompted the founding of the Inter–State Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) and the Agrhymet  Regional Centre (or CRA) in Niger, which provides training in agriculture, hydrology and meteorology for farmers and agricultural technicians. Agrhymet asked 热博体育 scientists to develop a model to enable agricultural climate risk zoning, to i) identify agricultural practices and varieties suited to the environment in these zones, and ii) estimate yields and pinpoint zones with marked water shortages during agricultural campaigns, so as to issue early warnings in terms of food security. A water balance simulation model (BIP) based on plant and soil water supply and consumption was developed in the early 1980s, to calculate the water requirement satisfaction index for the various stages of crop development. In 1992, the model was scaled up to a regional level, to enable agricultural climate risk zoning, sowing date optimization studies and yield estimates, notably for millet and sorghum (BIPZON version).

•  1987-1993: Introduction of the BIP4 and BIPZON versions in Brazil

Researchers at the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA, attached to the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock Husbandry and Supply - MAPA) had been looking at climate risks in agriculture since the 1980s. A partnership between EMBRAPA and 热博体育 allowed Brazilian and French researchers to use these models in the Cerrados (a Brazilian biome similar to grasslands) in Goiás state to estimate the risks of water stress and identify the best time to plant rice. A multidisciplinary team was set up to work on climate risks and produce climate risk index maps based on crop water balances (with soil and rainfall data). At the same time, the PROAGRO programme was seen to have major, systematic financial shortfalls, calling for the development of a support tool.

• 1994-2021: Appropriation of the models

In 1994, an EMBRAPA research team and members of the MAPA met with a view to carrying out agricultural climate risk zoning for the whole of Brazil, to develop a national instrument aimed at defining regional agricultural calendars and thus reducing agricultural losses. BIPZON was chosen for its low input data requirements. At the same time, work to improve these crop models continued in France and West Africa, based on computer language and graphic format changes. In 1996, researcher from EMBRAPA (in contact with 热博体育) and regional institutes integrated the SARRAZON model (which enables regional zoning) into a PROAGRO support mechanism: agricultural climate risk zoning (ZARC). The mechanism used climate, soil and crop data to draw up climate risk index maps that could then be used to make cropping calendar recommendations (sowing dates, cycle lengths) on a daily basis for the country's most economically important crops, such as soybean, rice, maize, wheat and cotton. Those recommendations were disseminated in the form of ministerial decrees. SARRAZON was subsequently calibrated for other crops, enabling ZARC to cover some 40 crops in all.

Changes resulting from appropriating models

Use of the SARRAZON model by research players, operators, and more indirectly policymakers in Brazil has enabled the following changes:

• Researchers from EMBRAPA are using models and including the notion of climate risk zones in terms of rainfall variations over a ten-day timespan in their agricultural climate zoning projects.
• Researchers from EMBRAPA and regional research institutes have worked together to establish a zoning instrument, in response to a request from the MAPA (birth of ZARC), which has triggered new collaborations between research institutes.
• The Central Bank has made it compulsory to follow ZARC recommendations in order to access PROAGRO.
• Researchers from EMBRAPA are finding it easier to discuss and cooperate on agroclimatology and climate risks.
• Regional players are setting up alternatives to ZARC with a view to managing specific climate risks, on crops not covered by the programme.

Contributions to socioeconomic impacts resulting from appropriation

Changes in agricultural policy and public action instruments in Brazil

• Farmers wishing to access PROAGRO and benefit from financial support must follow ZARC recommendations.
• Agricultural advisors now take on board ZARC recommendations in terms of varieties and sowing windows.
• Financial institutions (banks and credit unions) organize loan access in line with the ZARC calendar (eg prior to sowing dates in particular).
• National climate risk management policy now extends to 40 crop species.
• A "PROAGRO Maize" sub-programme was set up in 2004, suited to family farming. The MAPA has also set up the PSR (rural insurance premium grant programme), which has used ZARC from the outset.
• Brazil now has a denser network of rainfall stations. In Mato Grosso, the soybean producers' association (APROSOJA) has extended the network of rainfall stations to improve weather monitoring and thus optimize the results of the model.

Changes in agricultural research in Brazil

Agroclimatology research is now more visible nationwide. It was seen as being of secondary importance until the development of ZARC and the projects associated with it. Agroclimatology teaching staff from 17 Brazilian universities have observed a change in the importance given to this field: creation of new specialist research groups and laboratories, and specialist Masters and PhD programmes.
However, cooperation between research institutes (EMBRAPA and federal state institutes) has gradually decreased. Certain players see this as a negative aspect of ZARC. The main reason behind this is a change in how the MAPA funds research to conduct zoning and produce recommendations, which has resulted in a series of modifications to how the ZARC instrument is implemented, and how zoning data from states are transmitted.